從7月份(fen)經濟數據看鋼鐵(tie)行業運(yun)行環境

　　1月(yue)~7月(yue)份，規模以上(shang)工(gong)業(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)加值(zhi)整體保(bao)(bao)持平穩(wen)(wen)增(zeng)(zeng)長；工(gong)業(ye)品出廠價格指數(PPI)保(bao)(bao)持在(zai)正增(zeng)(zeng)長區間運行，超過前3年(nian)同(tong)期；中國制造業(ye)采購(gou)經(jing)理指數(PMI)在(zai)榮枯(ku)線上(shang)環比回(hui)落(luo)(luo)，仍好于2015年(nian)、2016年(nian)同(tong)期；新開工(gong)項目計(ji)(ji)劃總投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)額累計(ji)(ji)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速轉正；固定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)完成額累計(ji)(ji)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速超過去年(nian)同(tong)期，民間投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)主(zhu)要方向主(zhu)要集中于第二產業(ye)。總體上(shang)看，固定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)，特(te)別是民間投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)熱情回(hui)升，宏觀(guan)經(jing)濟整體延(yan)續了穩(wen)(wen)中向好的(de)趨勢。另外，房(fang)地產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)、商品房(fang)建(jian)設及銷售累計(ji)(ji)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速較1月(yue)~6月(yue)份有所回(hui)落(luo)(luo)。

　　黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)壓(ya)延加工業(ye)PPI保(bao)持(chi)同比(bi)大(da)幅(fu)正增(zeng)長，且增(zeng)速較(jiao)1月~6月份又(you)有所加快，煤炭(tan)開采和(he)洗選(xuan)業(ye)PPI增(zeng)速轉正，對鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)的(de)利潤形成擠(ji)壓(ya)；黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)礦采選(xuan)業(ye)、黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)壓(ya)延加工業(ye)固(gu)定資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)完(wan)成額保(bao)持(chi)同比(bi)大(da)幅(fu)下降(jiang)態勢(shi)(shi)；鋼(gang)鐵(tie)PMI在榮枯線上(shang)環比(bi)上(shang)升，顯示出鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)總體狀(zhuang)況較(jiao)好。總體上(shang)看(kan)，1月~7月份，鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)整體形勢(shi)(shi)延續了上(shang)半年(nian)穩(wen)中(zhong)有進的(de)態勢(shi)(shi)，但來自上(shang)游燃料行業(ye)的(de)壓(ya)力加大(da)，需引(yin)起注意。

　　煤(mei)炭行業產品漲價(jia)對鋼鐵(tie)行業形成壓(ya)力

　　7月(yue)份，規模(mo)以(yi)(yi)上工業增(zeng)(zeng)加值同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.4%，增(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)加快0.4個百分(fen)(fen)點，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)回落1.2個百分(fen)(fen)點。1月(yue)~7月(yue)份，規模(mo)以(yi)(yi)上工業增(zeng)(zeng)加值同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.8%，增(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)加快0.8個百分(fen)(fen)點，增(zeng)(zeng)速較上半(ban)年回落0.1個百分(fen)(fen)點。

　　1月~7月份(fen)，黑色金(jin)(jin)屬冶煉和壓延加(jia)(jia)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)規模以上工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)增加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)0.7%，增速同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)落0.9個百(bai)分點(dian)。與相(xiang)關下游(you)用(yong)鋼(gang)行業(ye)(ye)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)，黑色金(jin)(jin)屬冶煉和壓延加(jia)(jia)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)規模以上工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)增加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)增速處在最低位置(zhi)，低于同(tong)(tong)(tong)期通用(yong)設備(bei)制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)11.2%)、專用(yong)設備(bei)制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)12.1%)、金(jin)(jin)屬制(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)7.9%)、鐵路和其他(ta)運輸設備(bei)制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)5.1%)、汽車制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)13.0%)、電氣機(ji)械及器材制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)10.0%)。上述下游(you)行業(ye)(ye)中，除金(jin)(jin)屬制(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)外，其余行業(ye)(ye)增加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)累計(ji)增速較去年同(tong)(tong)(tong)期均有所加(jia)(jia)快。

　　7月(yue)(yue)份，PPI同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長5.5%，增(zeng)速同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升了7.2個百(bai)(bai)分點，增(zeng)速環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)持平。1月(yue)(yue)~7月(yue)(yue)份，PPI同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長6.4%，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升10.0個百(bai)(bai)分點，累(lei)計(ji)增(zeng)速較上(shang)半年回落0.2個百(bai)(bai)分點。

　　7月份，黑色(se)(se)金屬礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)和(he)(he)黑色(se)(se)金屬冶煉和(he)(he)壓延(yan)加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)PPI分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長12.4%和(he)(he)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長27.5%，黑色(se)(se)金屬礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)PPI同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)了16.1個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，增(zeng)(zeng)速環比(bi)(bi)(bi)加快0.5個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)；黑色(se)(se)金屬冶煉和(he)(he)壓延(yan)加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)PPI增(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)25.5個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)加快3.0個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。

　　7月份，黑色(se)金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉和壓(ya)延加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)PPI同比(bi)增速繼續(xu)保持加(jia)(jia)速上(shang)升態(tai)勢，表(biao)(biao)明(ming)鋼鐵產品價格(ge)繼續(xu)保持上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)。上(shang)游煤炭開(kai)采和洗(xi)選業(ye)PPI環(huan)比(bi)回落0.9個百分點至32.3%，煤炭開(kai)采與洗(xi)選業(ye)產品出(chu)廠(chang)價格(ge)的(de)增速雖(sui)然較6月份有所回落，但仍然高(gao)于黑色(se)金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉和壓(ya)延加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)產品出(chu)廠(chang)價格(ge)的(de)增速。上(shang)述情況表(biao)(biao)明(ming)，煤炭行(xing)業(ye)產品漲(zhang)(zhang)價對鋼鐵行(xing)業(ye)利潤形成了擠壓(ya)。

 　　下游相關行業PPI中(zhong)，金屬制(zhi)品(pin)業同比增(zeng)長(chang)5.3%；通用(yong)設備制(zhi)造(zao)業同比增(zeng)長(chang)0.7%，鐵路和(he)其他運輸(shu)設備制(zhi)造(zao)業同比增(zeng)長(chang)1.2%，汽車(che)制(zhi)造(zao)業同比下降0.2%。

　　鋼(gang)鐵PMI折射出鋼(gang)鐵行業(ye)形勢整體向好

　　7月份，鋼鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)PMI為54.9%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)0.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)，繼續保持在榮枯線上(shang)(shang)加速上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)態勢。各分(fen)(fen)項指(zhi)標中，新訂(ding)單指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為63.1%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)4.7個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)，新出(chu)口訂(ding)單指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為49.8%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)3.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。上(shang)(shang)述情況表(biao)明(ming)(ming)，隨著(zhu)6月底“地條鋼”出(chu)清，7月份國(guo)內外(wai)消費預期較6月份有所(suo)回(hui)升(sheng)，國(guo)內需(xu)求(qiu)預期明(ming)(ming)顯好(hao)于國(guo)外(wai)需(xu)求(qiu)預期。生產(chan)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為58.1%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)落0.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)，表(biao)明(ming)(ming)鋼鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)生產(chan)企業生產(chan)節奏(zou)有所(suo)放緩。與生產(chan)相關(guan)的(de)采購(gou)量指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為57.3%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)5.0個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。原材(cai)料庫存指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為49.3%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)1.3個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。購(gou)進(jin)價格指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為60.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)10.0個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。原材(cai)料進(jin)口指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為52.2%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)1.7個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。上(shang)(shang)述情況表(biao)明(ming)(ming)，鋼鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)企業加大了采購(gou)活動的(de)頻次，對(dui)原材(cai)料庫存進(jin)行(xing)了適當補庫，但上(shang)(shang)游原燃材(cai)料價格的(de)漲幅明(ming)(ming)顯過快，對(dui)鋼鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)行(xing)業利潤形成了擠(ji)壓。產(chan)成品庫存指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為41.6%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)下降0.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)，表(biao)明(ming)(ming)鋼鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)企業去(qu)庫存措施(shi)效果較好(hao)，庫存處于低位(wei)。

　　綜上(shang)所述，7月份，鋼(gang)鐵(tie)PMI體現出(chu)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業形勢繼(ji)續向好，但(dan)需要提醒鋼(gang)鐵(tie)企業注意(yi)：第(di)一，清理(li)“地條鋼(gang)”對下游(you)(you)行業造成了(le)供給偏緊(jin)的預(yu)期(qi)，上(shang)述預(yu)期(qi)能(neng)否最終形成下游(you)(you)行業穩定的實際需求尚待觀察，鋼(gang)鐵(tie)企業不應盲目(mu)擴產；第(di)二，上(shang)游(you)(you)原燃(ran)材料價(jia)格的上(shang)漲速(su)度過快(kuai)，擠(ji)壓了(le)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業利潤空(kong)間，需要引起注意(yi)。